US ethanol RIN credits fall to $1.75 after EPA moves on small refinery exemptions
US ethanol blending credits took a hard drop this week, and the trigger came out of Washington. D6 RINs fell to $1.75 each on Monday, down 34 cents from Friday and their lowest since April 15, according to Argus. Those same credits traded at $2.50 on July 7.
The move followed EPA extending a key compliance deadline and saying it would rule on the backlog of small refinery exemption requests by the end of August. More exemptions mean less mandated blending, which means less demand for the credits that prove blending happened. The market read it fast and marked prices down.
Biodiesel RINs slide too
The diesel side weakened in step. 2026 biomass-based diesel RINs were last assessed around $1.92, their lowest since late April. For anyone blending renewable diesel or B20, a cheaper RIN cuts the value of the credit you generate, and it changes the math on whether the next gallon pencils out.
Watch how far EPA goes on the exemptions. A big grant of pending petitions could keep pressure on D6 and D4 both; a narrow one could let prices firm back up. The end-of-August deadline the agency set for itself is the next real marker.
The biodiesel tax credit
Congress is being pushed to renew the biodiesel fuel tax credit, framed as consumer relief. For jobbers moving biodiesel blends, the credit is the difference between competitive and shelved on a lot of loads. Nothing has passed. If it lapses without renewal, blend economics get worse right when RIN values are already softening, so the two stories pull the same direction for a diesel marketer.
Corn, ethanol, and eggs
Several outlets tied ethanol demand to rising egg prices this week. The link runs through corn: ethanol plants and layer flocks compete for the same feed, so strong ethanol grind can lift corn and push feed costs into everything downstream, eggs included. It is a reminder that the RFS is a farm-economy lever as much as a fuel one, and corn buyers watch RIN prices for the same reason blenders do.
Deere's E98 tractor
John Deere is putting an E98 ethanol tractor into Nebraska and Illinois fields this fall. High-ethanol farm equipment is a small demand story, not a market mover, but it points at where the ethanol lobby wants the next gallons to go now that the light-duty blend wall is close. For a rural fuel supplier, on-farm ethanol demand is worth tracking even if it is years from mattering.
What to watch
The EPA exemption decision by the end of August is the one that moves prices. Watch whether D6 firms back up from here or stays near $1.75, whether biomass-based diesel RINs hold near their $1.92 mark, and whether Congress moves the biodiesel credit before the fall session fills up.