G7 releases 100 million barrels of oil and diesel

The G7 is putting 100 million barrels of oil and diesel into the market. For US operators the diesel in that number is the part to watch, because it adds product supply at the same moment the Middle East is giving the market reasons to worry about supply.

Supply risk on the other side. A fire hit a Saudi Aramco refinery near Riyadh. How much capacity is down and for how long is not clear yet. Houthi attacks on shipping in the region have continued, which keeps a risk premium on crude and product moving through those waters. So the barrels from the G7 add supply while the Saudi fire and the attacks push the other way, and the net effect on diesel depends on how the two sides land.

California. The state's refinery safety board took a vote affecting California refineries. Anything that changes operating rules for that fleet can tighten an already thin West Coast market, so it is worth tracking as the details come out.

Oil sands. Canadian oil sands remain part of the North American supply picture, and demand for that crude is a slower-moving factor sitting underneath the near-term swings above.

What to watch: how much of the G7 diesel actually reaches the market and when, the damage and restart timeline at the Saudi plant, and whether the Houthi attacks spread to more of the shipping lanes.