Diesel supply tightens into winter as some states allow dyed diesel on highways; Brent back above $100
Diesel supply is tightening ahead of winter and heating oil is rising with it. Several states have already loosened their diesel rules to keep freight and heat moving. Jobbers should check term contracts and winter allocation now rather than in December.
Dyed diesel on the road
Some states are letting dyed diesel run on the highway for a limited window. Mansfield's caution is worth passing to your drivers: the waiver does not make dyed and clear diesel interchangeable. You still owe the federal road tax plus your state diesel tax unless a notice says otherwise in writing, and a roadside inspector can still act on dye in the tank. If you are moving product under one of these provisions, document the authority you are running under. The back tax and penalty at an audit run well past the value of the fuel.
The crude backdrop
Brent is back above $100 after the early-September re-escalation, and it has stayed there. High crude is feeding the rack. Analysts just cut China's fourth-quarter crude import forecast by 400,000 barrels a day, with independent Chinese refiners struggling to find cheap barrels now that Iranian supply has nearly disappeared. Cargoes arriving in September were bought back in the $80s, so the full weight of $100 crude has not reached product prices yet. If Brent holds here, wholesale diesel and gasoline could grind higher into the season rather than ease.
Motor oil steadies
One place the pressure is coming off is lubricants. JobbersWorld's latest count found 72 of 89 product-family prices unchanged from August into late September, so the sharp increases from earlier in 2026 appear to have stalled. Private-label hikes kept the overall basket a touch higher, and the basket is still 25.3% above where it was in February. Prices have stopped rising, but they have not come down. If you sell packaged oil, the shelf price is holding while your replacement cost is locked in near the top.
What to watch
Whether more states issue diesel waivers as heating demand builds, and how long each window runs. Where Brent settles once the September cargoes work through, because that is when $100 crude actually reaches your rack. And private-label lube pricing, for the first real crack in the increases.