Brent holds at $105.26 as Iran war keeps rack costs high; EPA biofuel reallocation leaves RIN timing unresolved
Rack prices are staying high because the crude underneath them looks set to stay high. Brent slipped 0.6% to $105.26 on the day, a small move. Global supply is still under pressure with no US-Iran deal to end the Iran war, and until that changes, jobbers are buying expensive barrels and passing the cost down the chain. The global LNG crunch is making it worse. Spot cargoes are barely moving out of the Strait of Hormuz while Qatari supply runs short, and that tightness pulls on energy prices broadly, including the crude that sets your rack.
Nothing in the day's news points to relief. If the strait stays constrained and the US and Iran stay apart, wholesale costs could hold at these levels into winter.
The reallocation proposal
EPA put out a biofuel reallocation plan that offers relief for ethanol producers and farmers, redistributing the gallons lost to small-refinery exemptions back into the obligation pool. For obligated parties and the blenders feeding them, that resets how many RINs you need to cover.
The catch is timing. The proposal leaves unresolved when the reallocated volumes actually apply, which keeps RIN values harder to price. If you are marking up blended product off a RIN assumption, an open timeline means you are guessing. Watch for a comment period and an effective date before you lock anything in.
SAF RINs
Domestically produced sustainable aviation fuel generating RINs rose every month from April through August, per ResourceWise's October 2026 SAF Snapshot, after an early-year decline. Imports contributed far less than in earlier periods, so the growth is coming from US plants.
For most ground-fuel jobbers this is not a direct line item yet. It matters because SAF and renewable diesel pull from the same feedstock and credit pools, and a sustained run of domestic SAF RINs changes where those gallons and credits land inside the RFS. More domestic SAF supply could ease some of the import dependence that has whipsawed credit values.
Whether it holds depends on consistency. Five straight months is worth tracking, but it is not yet enough to plan supply around.
What to watch
US-Iran is the dominant driver of rack costs. Any movement toward a deal could ease crude and the LNG tightness feeding it; continued deadlock keeps Brent near $105 and your landed cost high.
On the policy side, watch EPA for a firm effective date on the reallocation. Until that lands, RIN exposure stays a moving number. And keep an eye on the SAF snapshots through the fall to see if domestic volumes keep climbing or stall out.