Brent January 2027 holds at $102.59 as Iran war drags on; NGL sells a propane terminal
The forward crude curve is telling jobbers to budget for expensive supply deep into next year. ICE Brent for January 2027 is trading at $102.59 a barrel, with the June 2027 contract only a little lower at $92.71. The war between the US, Israel and Iran has run past the quick ending the market priced this summer, and the paper says that premium could stay on the board well into 2027.
The 2027 Brent curve
A June ceasefire had a lot of desks betting the fighting would wrap up fast. It didn't, and the January 2027 contract near $102 says traders now expect tight supply for another year or more. For anyone buying rack, that matters more than the front month.
High forward crude keeps your cost of goods elevated on every gallon you move, and it raises the price of locking supply ahead. Hedging a 2027 position at $102 Brent is a very different conversation than hedging at $70. Marketers running thin working capital may find term supply deals pricier to secure, and unbranded buyers chasing spot could see the discount to branded narrow when barrels stay scarce.
The number to respect is the one further out. A backwardated-looking strip that stays above $90 into mid-2027 is the market saying it doesn't see the war easing soon.
NGL's propane terminal
NGL Energy Partners is selling a propane terminal, raising upfront cash and trimming its downstream reach. The partnership is currently unprofitable and carrying capital-hungry assets with outside borrowing, so the sale reads as a portfolio reshuffle to tighten focus on Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics and Liquids Logistics.
For propane marketers, the question is who takes over the terminal and whether supply terms hold through the sale. A midstream owner cleaning up its balance sheet can mean steadier operations down the line, or it can mean a new operator with different allocation rules. Watch the counterparty.
NGL keeps most of its infrastructure footprint here. This is one asset changing hands, not a retreat from liquids logistics, so day-to-day supply out of NGL's remaining terminals shouldn't shift on this news alone.
What to watch
Whether the Brent 2027 strip holds above $90 or starts to soften if the fighting pauses again. A second ceasefire that sticks could pull the forward premium off fast, which would change term-supply math for anyone buying ahead.
On NGL, watch for the buyer's name and any change to propane supply terms at the sold terminal. And watch NGL's next quarter for whether the cash from this sale actually moves the needle on its borrowing.