US diesel stocks run 14% below average as crude builds and OPEC+ holds output
US distillate inventories are running 14% below the five-year average, even as crude oil stockpiles built last week. For anyone buying diesel by the load heading into heating season, that is the number that matters more than the price of a barrel.
The diesel squeeze
The EIA reported a crude build of 900,000 barrels for the week ending September 25, bringing commercial stocks to 427.3 million barrels, about 2% above the five-year average. Crude is fine. Diesel is not. Distillate sits 14% under its seasonal norm, and Morningstar DBRS says the global diesel shortage is padding margins at US refiners right now.
Refiners earn on the crack spread, the gap between what they pay for crude and what they get for gasoline and diesel. When diesel is scarce and crude is only adequate, that gap widens on the diesel side. Refiners run hard to make more distillate, and the wholesale price of diesel stays firm even on days when crude eases. A crude build does not help you if the barrels coming out are short on the product you actually buy.
OPEC+ holds
The key OPEC+ producers are set to leave November output quotas unchanged at their meeting this weekend, per sources cited by Reuters. Gulf members have been producing and exporting well below quota since the Iran war crippled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, so a flat decision does not mean flat supply. It means no new barrels are coming to loosen a market that is already tight. Nothing in that points to relief at the rack.
Crude above $100
Brent rose 1.4% to $97.49 and has been trading above $100 on the Hormuz disruption. Analysts are marking up their bets: a Reuters poll of 30 economists put 2026 Brent at an average of $89.05, up from $85.08 a month earlier, and WTI at $83.90 from $80.20. The government is making as much as 40 million barrels available from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to take some edge off. On the demand side, analysts cut China's Q4 crude import forecast by 400,000 bpd as high prices and the near-disappearance of Iranian barrels bite, which could cap how far crude runs from here.
What to watch
The OPEC+ decision this weekend, whether the Hormuz recovery holds, and diesel inventories as heating demand kicks in. If the strait stays open, crude could ease. Diesel is the one to keep your eye on, because that is what is short going into the cold.